The FedEx Cup Playoffs have finally arrived, and the race for the TOUR Championship officially begins this week in Memphis at the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship. As the first of three Playoff events, this tournament marks the start of a high-stakes stretch where the margin for error shrinks and every shot carries extra weight. Only the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to tee it up at TPC Southwind, and with only 50 advancing to next week’s BMW Championship, the pressure will be on from the opening tee shot. TPC Southwind, a longtime staple on the PGA TOUR schedule, is a par-70 that stretches just over 7,200 yards, but its challenge comes less from distance and more from precision. Water hazards are in play on more than half the holes, and small, fast Bermuda greens demand clean ball-striking, sharp iron play, and reliable putting. Historically, this is a course where experience and patience pay off, and players who can keep their ball in play, avoid big mistakes, and capitalize on scoring opportunities tend to separate themselves down the stretch. With so much on the line and momentum playing a major role in shaping the FedEx Cup narrative, don’t be surprised if the leaderboard sees some surprising names make a push, especially with the pressure amplifying and the stakes as high as they’ve been all season. With that in mind, let’s break down some of the players who are primed to make early statements and take control as the Playoffs get underway:

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Key Players to Watch

Justin Thomas

Even though he’s one of the TOUR’s bigger names, Justin Thomas still might be flying a bit under the radar heading into the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship, but this week offers a perfect opportunity for him to regain the electric form he flashed just a few months ago. With odds currently sitting at +2500 on DraftKings and a 5th-place spot in the FedEx Cup standings, Thomas is firmly in the hunt to chase down names like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, and TPC Southwind might just be the stage where he reasserts himself in that conversation. His history at this event includes a T4 in 2021 and a T13 in 2022, both strong results that suggest he’s capable of contending here again, especially given how well his current profile suits this course. Statistically, JT is stacking up with the best of them. He ranks 1st on the PGA TOUR in putting average (1.679) and birdie or better conversion percentage (37.37%), while also sitting 2nd in birdie average (4.50) and Par 4 scoring average (3.95). His wedge game has been nothing short of elite—ranking top 3 in approach proximity from both 50–125 yards and inside 100 yards, and he’s inside the top 20 in nearly every key strokes gained category, including Total (6th), Putting (13th), Approach (18th), and Tee-to-Green (20th). That kind of all-around form is tailor-made for a place like Southwind, where sharp wedges, strategic driving, and solid putting tend to separate contenders from the pack. In 17 starts this season, Thomas has racked up seven top-10 finishes and three runner-ups, including a win at the RBC Heritage and a T2 just a few weeks ago at the Truist Championship. He’s made 15 cuts and has been consistently knocking on the door since January. If he can tighten up just a few things this week, don’t be surprised to see him in the final few groups on Sunday.

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Russell Henley

Russell Henley is one of the most underappreciated stars on the PGA TOUR, and he’ll be one of the more complete and dependable players in the field at this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s quietly put together one of the strongest and most consistent seasons of anyone on TOUR, racking up nine top-10 finishes in just 15 starts, including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T2 at the Travelers Championship, and top-10s at both major championships and signature events. His all-around game fits TPC Southwind beautifully, and the stats back that up—Henley ranks 1st in both proximity from 75-100 yards (11’6”) and Par 3 scoring (2.96), 5th in Strokes Gained: Total, and inside the top 15 in key categories such as Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Driving Accuracy, and Scoring Average. What separates Henley from most of the field is his elite wedge control, precise iron play, and a level of consistency that rarely wavers from round to round. His ability to keep the ball in play and dial in from short range gives him a major advantage on a course like Southwind, where placement and strategy are everything. Henley has already shown flashes of success here with a T6 and T8 over the past five years, and considering he enters this year with significantly more form and momentum than those previous runs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the hunt once again on Sunday. He currently sits 4th in the FedEx Cup standings and is arguably having the best season of his career, making him a strong play to contend in Memphis this week.

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Chris Gotterup

Chris Gotterup has been playing like one of the best golfers in the world over the past month, and with three consecutive top-10 finishes, including a breakthrough win at the Scottish Open, a solo third at The Open Championship, and a T10 at the 3M Open, he arrives in Memphis with as much momentum as anyone in the field. Despite having no prior experience at TPC Southwind, the 25-year-old’s elite ball-striking profile gives him a legitimate shot to stay hot and continue climbing the FedEx Cup standings, where he currently sits 22nd. Gotterup ranks 4th on TOUR in Scoring Average (69.29), Greens in Regulation (71.56%), and Par 3 Scoring (2.98), while also placing inside the top 10 in both Driving Distance (316.3 yards) and Scrambling (64.58%), two key skills that translate well at a course like Southwind that rewards power and creativity around the greens. What’s most impressive is how consistently he’s contended in strong fields: 12 top-25s in 24 starts, including two top-3 finishes against loaded major fields. He’s also 7th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 7th in par 4 scoring, and top 30 in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Total—indicators of a well-rounded game that can travel to just about any layout. With a putting stroke that’s trending upward and the confidence of someone who’s proven he can win on the big stage, Gotterup should be more than capable of landing inside the top 25 or even making another push into the top 10.

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Now, let’s go ahead and dive right into the best value bets to take this week:

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Top 20: Harris English (+130, DraftKings)

Sam Burns is looking for another big finish to sit more comfortably inside TOUR Championship territory, and this week sets up perfectly for him to do just that. After finishing T5 at TPC Southwind last year, his best result in five career appearances, the Louisiana native seems to be trending in the right direction each time he returns to Memphis. While he missed the cut in 2020, he’s improved every year since, posting a T21 in 2021, T20 in 2022, and T52 in 2023 before last year’s top-five showing, and now ranked 24th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll be looking to build onto that success and lock in a trip to East Lake with another strong result. With +320 odds to finish inside the top 10 this week, there’s clear value in backing one of the PGA TOUR’s steadiest performers. Statistically, Burns has had an underrated 2025 season, ranking 19th in Strokes Gained: Total (0.869) and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting (0.833). He also ranks top-five in Total Putting (55.3), Putting Average (1.724), and Putting Inside 10 Feet (90.15%), making him one of the most reliable short-game players on TOUR. He’s also especially dangerous when attacking pins from the rough, where he leads all players in Average Proximity from 125-150 Yards (19’6″), and his 39.45% Scrambling from Over 30 Yards (11th) and 63.11% Sand Save Percentage (31st) help him limit mistakes on tough setups like Southwind. Though he hasn’t yet won this season, Burns has quietly posted four top-10 finishes and made the cut in 18 of 21 starts, including a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open, a T7 at the U.S. Open, a T5 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and a T8 at The Sentry. Combine his recent form, elite putting, and upward-trending course history, and Burns is a great top-10 play this week.

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Top 10: Sam Burns (+320, DraftKings)

Sam Burns is looking for another big finish to sit more comfortably inside TOUR Championship territory, and this week sets up perfectly for him to do just that. After finishing T5 at TPC Southwind last year, his best result in five career appearances, the Louisiana native seems to be trending in the right direction each time he returns to Memphis. While he missed the cut in 2020, he’s improved every year since, posting a T21 in 2021, T20 in 2022, and T52 in 2023 before last year’s top-five showing, and now ranked 24th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll be looking to build onto that success and lock in a trip to East Lake with another strong result. With +320 odds to finish inside the top 10 this week, there’s clear value in backing one of the PGA TOUR’s steadiest performers. Statistically, Burns has had an underrated 2025 season, ranking 19th in Strokes Gained: Total (0.869) and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting (0.833). He also ranks top-five in Total Putting (55.3), Putting Average (1.724), and Putting Inside 10 Feet (90.15%), making him one of the most reliable short-game players on TOUR. He’s also especially dangerous when attacking pins from the rough, where he leads all players in Average Proximity from 125-150 Yards (19’6″), and his 39.45% Scrambling from Over 30 Yards (11th) and 63.11% Sand Save Percentage (31st) help him limit mistakes on tough setups like Southwind. Though he hasn’t yet won this season, Burns has quietly posted four top-10 finishes and made the cut in 18 of 21 starts, including a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open, a T7 at the U.S. Open, a T5 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and a T8 at The Sentry. Combine his recent form, elite putting, and upward-trending course history, and Burns is a great top-10 play this week.

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Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+3000, DraftKings)

Once again, I’d be crazy to fade Scottie Scheffler this week, and after doing it in each of his last two starts, I won’t be making that mistake a third time. Even at short +280 odds to win outright at the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship, it’s hard to find a reason not to back the world’s best player, especially considering he hasn’t won this tournament before. That means he’s not just chasing a fifth win in nine starts, he’s playing with a little extra motivation in Memphis, a place where he’s trended with a solo fourth last year and a T4 in 2020. He hasn’t broken through for a win at TPC Southwind yet, but if recent history is any indication, it’ll take a truly special week from someone else to stop him from hoisting another trophy on Sunday. Scheffler’s 2025 resumé is staggering: four wins (CJ CUP Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, Memorial Tournament, and Open Championship), a runner-up finish in Houston, 13 top-10s, and a perfect 16 top-25s in all 16 of his starts. He’s first on TOUR in nearly every key category, including Strokes Gained: Total (2.640), Tee-to-Green (2.278), Off-the-Tee (0.708), Approach (1.297), Scoring Average (68.34), and Par 4 Scoring (3.91). He’s also elite around the greens, ranking top-5 in multiple scrambling categories and putting stats, so to put the facts in simple terms, there’s simply no hole in his game right now. With his consistency, ball-striking dominance, and recent form, it feels like only a matter of time. Plus, he’s shown time and again that he knows how to close, often separating himself on the back nine when it matters most. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to look into his odds of being the Top American finisher at +210 odds, but for me, regardless of where Scottie’s mind is at, he’s too locked in to fade again.

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Stay tuned later this weekend for daily recaps of the action, and once the final putt drops, I’ll break down my key takeaways from this year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind!