A massive weekend of college football lies ahead in Week 5, and it feels less like the end of September and more like we’ve stumbled into the middle of November, because everywhere you look the schedule is loaded with games that will once again either confirm contenders or expose pretenders. The SEC is buzzing with rivalries that carry more than just regional bragging rights, since several of these meetings come layered with playoff implications and personal grudges that seem to get nastier by the year, and while any game in the south always seems like a huge obstacle, this particular slate feels even more volatile with multiple top-20 teams colliding. Upset alarms are blaring in unexpected corners of the country, because a few heavyweights are walking into hostile stadiums where the margins for error are razor thin, and history has taught us how dangerous that can be. By the time the dust settles, all eyes will drift to Athens for another Kirby Smart vs. Alabama classic and to Happy Valley for a White Out game that will once again close the weekend under the kind of spectacle that defines college football at its peak. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at some of these matchups:

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Friday, September 26

#8 Florida State (-6.5) @ Virginia (O/U: 60.5)

Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

7 pm, ESPN

Friday night in Charlottesville brings a matchup that feels far more consequential than most would have guessed before the season, as both Florida State and Virginia are eager to prove their respective turnarounds are more than fleeting September optimism. Florida State’s collapse a year ago was one of the sport’s more baffling implosions, but Mike Norvell did not sit idle, instead rebuilding his roster and staff through both the transfer portal and coordinator overhauls, creating a Seminole team that has already shown it can dominate with pace, power, and explosiveness. Thomas Castellanos has settled into the offense seamlessly, blending his mobility with Malzahn’s schematics, and the Seminoles have rediscovered their ground attack, which had been nonexistent in 2024. Virginia, meanwhile, has quietly pieced together its most balanced squad of the Tony Elliott era, leaning on Chandler Morris at quarterback and a trio of backs who punish defenses behind a retooled line that is finally showing some stability. The Cavaliers’ defense is also playing with confidence, but it now faces its steepest challenge against a Seminole attack that can stretch the field in multiple ways. Both teams bring momentum, but the question is whether Virginia’s rapid improvement is ready for the shock of Florida State’s revamped identity.

Best Bet: Under 60.5

The angle that stands out most here isn’t really the spread but rather how Florida State approaches the flow of this game, because with Miami looming next weekend, the Seminoles have every incentive to keep things steady and avoid a track meet that could leave them banged up or drained heading into their biggest test of the season. Mike Norvell’s group will want to dictate tempo by leaning on the run game, extending drives, and keeping Chandler Morris and Virginia’s offense stuck on the sideline rather than letting the Cavaliers find rhythm in quick, high-possession sequences. That means designed quarterback runs for Thomas Castellanos will be a central piece, not just as an explosive wrinkle but as a tool to chew clock and force Virginia’s defense to chase him sideline to sideline. While both teams have shown they’re capable of piling up points in a hurry, the possibility of Florida State treating this as a “manage and survive” situation makes the posted total feel a bit ambitious. Given the Seminoles’ likely emphasis on control, the Cavaliers’ willingness to grind behind their backs, and the looming shadow of the Miami showdown, the under 60.5 feels right here.

Prediction

This game sets up as a fascinating test of tempo and resilience, with Florida State determined to lean into its newfound offensive rhythm while Virginia tries to prove that its September progress is sustainable against a top-tier opponent. The Cavaliers have the pieces to turn this into a close contest, especially with Morris capable of orchestrating balanced drives that keep their defense fresh, but Florida State’s talent level across the board presents challenges that few ACC teams are equipped to handle. Castellanos’ versatility is the ultimate swing factor, as his ability to attack both through the air and on the ground makes defensive play-calling extremely difficult, particularly for a unit like Virginia’s that has shown flashes of strength but remains untested against elite tempo. If the Cavaliers can win the turnover battle and turn long possessions into touchdowns rather than field goals, they’ll hang around into the late stages, but the Seminoles’ depth and explosiveness make it difficult to envision Virginia dictating terms for a full four quarters. Expect momentum swings and a handful of big plays from both sides, yet Florida State’s higher ceiling and sharper execution should eventually separate them in a hostile road environment, even in a lookahead spot that will give them a scare before what could be an ACC Game of the Year candidate next weekend in Tallahassee.

Final Score: #8 Florida State 31, Virginia 24

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#24 TCU @ Arizona State (-3.5) (O/U: 54.5)

Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ

9 pm, FOX

Two of the Big XII’s most dynamic offenses, TCU and Arizona State meet in Tempe, and the game looks set to deliver fast-paced, high-quality football. Arizona State is looking to continue its recovery after an uncharacteristic loss to Mississippi State, leaning on Sam Leavitt’s poise and Jordyn Tyson’s explosive playmaking to stretch the field and punish mistakes. TCU, meanwhile, is riding the confidence of big early-season wins, with Josh Hoover orchestrating an efficient, high-volume attack that tests every corner of the Sun Devils’ secondary. Both teams are fully capable of lighting up the scoreboard, and the matchup becomes less about small adjustments and more about who can consistently impose their rhythm, who can win the key matchups in the trenches, and which quarterback finds chemistry with his top targets under pressure. With experience, talent, and motivation stacked on both sidelines, fans should expect crisp execution, dramatic swings, and highlight-reel plays, turning the Big 12 clash into a game that lives up to the hype from kickoff to the final whistle.

Best Bet: Josh Hoover o280.5 Passing Yards

Josh Hoover’s passing production once again stands out as the most logical entry point, especially considering the game script and Arizona State’s vulnerabilities in the secondary, and I believe he could easily clear that number and possibly reach well over 300 as well. The Sun Devils boast one of the better defensive backfields in the conference on paper, but recent lapses against big-play receivers have shown how easily disciplined spacing can crack under tempo. Hoover thrives precisely in those situations, dissecting zones and punishing mismatches with a blend of rhythm throws and sudden deep shots. Jordan Dwyer and Eric McAlister in particular have quietly become his best options, as they not only stretch the field vertically but also attack the middle with a chain-moving efficiency that forces defenses to pick their poison. Even though the Sun Devils’ pass rush has been productive early, TCU’s offensive line has kept Hoover remarkably clean, and in a high-possession, high-tempo contest, that stability matters more than any single blitz package. Considering that TCU is unlikely to rely heavily on its rushing committee in this matchup, Hoover projects for a throw-heavy workload, and Dwyer and McAlister fit perfectly into that environment as target magnets in crucial downs. A total surpassing 280 yards is not only realistic but directly tied to how this game will be played, as his usage expands in proportion to Arizona State’s ability to keep the scoreboard tight.

Prediction

Arizona State will strike early, using a mix of quick passes and smart runs to establish rhythm and keep TCU’s defense guessing, converting several third downs to set the tone. The Sun Devils’ offense will methodically chew up the clock, mixing short passes with well-timed play-action to create opportunities downfield, while the defensive front applies consistent pressure, forcing the Horned Frogs into hurried throws and limiting big plays. As the game progresses, TCU will answer with quick strikes of its own, creating momentum swings that keep the score tight and the crowd on edge. Arizona State will rely on sustained drives and key third-down conversions to slowly wear down TCU, responding to each surge with a scoring drive of their own, including a critical late touchdown set up by a short field after a defensive stop. The closing minutes will be tense, with both offenses trading possessions and the outcome hinging on discipline, execution, and a few timely defensive plays. In the end, Arizona State’s ability to control the clock, capitalize on opportunities, and execute under pressure will allow them to narrowly pull away for a dramatic conference victory.

Final Score: Arizona State 30, #24 TCU 27

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Saturday, September 27

#21 USC (-6.5) @ #23 Illinois (O/U: 61.5)

Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL

Noon, FOX

Saturday’s game against USC will be a stark test for Illinois, who must recover quickly after last week’s humiliating defeat at the hands of Indiana, as they welcome a team to Champaign that has looked formidable through its first four games despite facing relatively weak opposition. The Fighting Illini’s offensive line will need to reassert itself against a Trojans front built for disruption and speed, while Luke Altmyer’s passing accuracy and having a running back as large as Kaden Feagin in the backfield will be critical for sustaining drives. USC enters this matchup with an offense humming under Lincoln Riley’s system, relying on Jayden Maiava’s dual-threat capabilities and a rushing attack that has consistently worn down defenses, but their own inconsistencies, including penalties and occasional lapses in focus, could provide Illinois with opportunities if they can execute cleanly. On defense, the Fighting Illini boast a disciplined secondary and a front seven capable of creating pressure, but the Trojans’ dynamic receivers and balanced run-pass threat may test their limits. This clash shapes up as a litmus test for Illinois’ resilience and a chance for USC to further prove that its early-season production is no fluke, with momentum swings likely to dominate the narrative throughout the afternoon.

Best Bet: Illinois 1H +3.5

I believe that the Fighting Illini will be very desperate to establish a rhythm early on after last week’s collapse and will likely start aggressively to prove they can still compete with ranked teams, and they should be able to keep it within nothing worse than a field goal deficit against USC’s vulnerable defense. The Trojans’ offense, on the other hand, is explosive, but their early-game approach tends to rely on establishing the run and methodical pacing, which could allow Illinois to hang close if they can convert early third downs and avoid negative plays. Altmyer’s short-to-intermediate accuracy and the running duo of Feagin and Laughery could generate enough momentum to keep the scoreboard tight, while USC’s high-powered attack may not immediately find its rhythm against a motivated home crowd. Additionally, Illinois will be hyper-focused on limiting explosive plays after last week’s embarrassment, and the Fighting Illini’s front seven has shown flashes of disruption that could force turnovers or stalled drives in the opening 30 minutes. While USC remains the more talented squad overall, Illinois’ urgency combined with home-field energy creates a favorable scenario for covering the first-half spread, making this a strategic, lower-risk play with upside in a game that could see swings in momentum.

Prediction

Expect a game that will be very evenly matched from start to finish, where Illinois will need to control the trenches and maintain composure after a demoralizing Week 4 and USC’s multi-faceted attack, with Maiava orchestrating both the aerial and ground games, will need challenge the Illini’s defensive discipline, particularly in the backfield. Their ability to convert third downs efficiently will be a key factor, but an even bigger factor will be Makai Lemon’s ability to expose even the best secondaries. Meanwhile, Illinois must rely on short drives, precise passing, and a physical running game to offset the Trojans’ explosive potential, with the front seven and secondary working in tandem to generate pressure and limit big plays. Turnovers and penalties may swing momentum repeatedly, and the atmosphere at Memorial Stadium will magnify every miscue, potentially disrupting communication and timing for the visitors. Ultimately, while USC possesses the superior roster and proven production, Illinois’ desperation, preparation, and home-field advantages give them a realistic path to hang around in a back-and-forth affair, with the game likely coming down to a late field goal that will lift the Fighting Illini over the Trojans to put them back on track for one of their program’s strongest seasons to date.

Final Score: #23 Illinois 31, #21 USC 28

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#22 Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Arkansas (O/U: 63.5)

Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR

Noon, ABC

From the opening whistle, this matchup promises to be a clash between two programs who have had similar strengths and concerns but with very different annual trajectories over the last several years, as Arkansas fans have circled this contest on their calendars for months while Notre Dame enters with a defense still trying to find its footing and an offense that can overwhelm nearly any opponent when firing on all cylinders. The Razorbacks, riding the energy of a passionate home crowd, will look to leverage a powerful backfield and a quarterback capable of extending plays to keep the Irish on their heels, while Notre Dame must rely on a balanced attack of rush and pass to dictate tempo and avoid falling into reactive patterns. Execution in critical situations, including third-down conversions, red-zone efficiency, and minimizing penalties, will define whether the game tilts toward the Razorbacks’ confidence or Notre Dame’s experience. Arkansas’ offensive line and physical running game could control the trenches for stretches, but the Irish possess enough talent to respond with explosive plays, meaning this contest will swing on momentum, situational discipline, and which team can impose its will in short bursts of decisive football.

Best Bet: Mike Washington Jr. Anytime TD

While Arkansas can strike quickly with their balanced attack, Mike Washington Jr. stands out as the Razorbacks’ most dangerous weapon in the red zone, as his combination of size, power, and vision, which has been a set of common traits among recent running backs under Sam Pittman, allows him not only to break tackles but also to consistently finish drives under pressure. Arkansas has repeatedly demonstrated that their backfield can dominate time of possession, wearing down defenses and creating opportunities for play-action passes when defenders overcommit to stopping the run, which positions Washington as a natural focal point for critical scoring chances. Notre Dame’s defensive front remains talented on paper, yet they have shown susceptibility to physical, downhill runners who can impose their will on the line of scrimmage, especially in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios, and Washington’s skill set is perfectly suited to exploit these gaps. Beyond just raw power, his ability to read blocks, adjust in traffic, and maintain balance through contact gives Arkansas the flexibility to design creative red-zone packages that keep the Irish guessing. By emphasizing situational execution and getting Washington the ball in high-leverage moments, the Razorbacks can generate explosive scoring plays that not only energize the home crowd but also give them a legitimate path to staying competitive in a matchup that otherwise leans heavily in Notre Dame’s favor.

Prediction

Expect a high-energy opening with Arkansas immediately testing Notre Dame’s discipline and physicality, as Taylen Green, who I believe is college football’s most underrated quarterback, and his versatile backfield will look to set a punishing tempo designed to force the Irish to respond on both sides of the ball, potentially dictating the early narrative if the Razorbacks can win the line-of-scrimmage battles. Notre Dame will counter with a balanced offensive approach, mixing inside zone runs, power gaps, and intermediate passing routes to keep the Razorbacks off-balance, while relying on their depth and rotation at skill positions to absorb the punishment of a larger, more physical home team and maintain consistency late in drives. Field position, turnover margin, and third-down efficiency will prove decisive throughout the afternoon, as both teams possess the ability to create explosive plays but remain vulnerable when facing sustained pressure or clever defensive scheming. If Arkansas can generate early stops and exploit mistakes, momentum could shift in their favor, giving them a legitimate opportunity to keep the contest tight. However, Notre Dame will make a few more plays on both sides of the ball that will prove to be the difference, and the Irish get a much-needed road win to even their win-loss total for the season and break the hearts of Razorback fans across the state of Arkansas.

Final Score: #22 Notre Dame 42, Arkansas 38

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#1 Ohio State (-10.5) @ Washington (O/U: 53.5)

Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA

3:30 pm, CBS

The Buckeyes arrive in the Pacific Northwest riding the kind of momentum that only a reigning national champion can muster, and this matchup presents a true test of Ohio State’s adaptability against one of the loudest and most passionate crowds in the B1G. Coming off a bye week and a dominant win over Texas in the season opener, the Buckeyes have had extra time to prepare and polish a balanced offensive attack that mixes methodical, ground-based drives with explosive passing opportunities through a talented wide receiver corps. Washington enters with confidence following a commanding rivalry victory, looking to prove that their early success is no fluke and that they belong in the upper echelon of the conference. The Huskies will lean on a dual-threat quarterback and a rushing attack capable of breaking big plays in space, while Ohio State will seek to impose discipline at the line of scrimmage and force Washington into third-and-long situations. This clash will hinge on execution, tempo control, and which team can dictate the rhythm throughout the game, as both squads offer contrasting offensive philosophies and defensive strengths that promise a four-quarter battle in one of college football’s most intimidating environments.

Best Bet: Bo Jackson o44.5 Rushing Yards

Freshman Bo Jackson has quietly become a key component of Ohio State’s ground game, and the Buckeyes will rely on him to keep their rushing attack balanced while easing pressure on their passing game. With vision, burst, and contact balance, Jackson is capable of exploiting openings created by the offensive line, particularly on designed zone runs and counters that force defenders to hesitate. Although Washington’s front seven has shown resilience and aggression against traditional rushing concepts, Jackson’s skill set allows him to gain consistent positive yardage even against a disciplined defense, and Ohio State’s rotation-heavy backfield ensures he will see enough opportunities to reach 45 rushing yards. Play-action and balanced offensive sets will help Jackson find lanes and force defenders to respect the passing game, amplifying his chances to hit the mark. Given his consistent production and role in sustaining drives, this over feels highly attainable, especially in a contest where controlling tempo and clock will be critical against a team that thrives in quick-strike situations.

Prediction

This game will be controlled from for a very long time by Ohio State, as their combination of elite defensive talent, depth, and disciplined execution is likely to suffocate Washington’s offense at every turn. The Huskies’ well-rounded skill players and home-field energy in Seattle will matter little against a Buckeyes defense that excels at limiting explosive plays, closing running lanes, and forcing quarterbacks into hurried decisions. From the opening snap, expect Ohio State to dictate the pace, control the line of scrimmage, and make Washington earn every yard through methodical drives that chew clock and frustrate the Huskies’ tempo-oriented approach. Washington will have a hard time finding any yards, and any attempt to sustain drives will be met with relentless pressure and tight coverage across the field. While Washington may generate occasional chunks of yardage, they will be few and far between, and Ohio State’s balanced offensive attack will capitalize on every mistake, maintaining comfortable margins throughout the contest. The Buckeyes’ ability to combine physicality up front, precision in the passing game, and opportunistic playmaking on defense ensures that the outcome will never be in serious doubt, turning what could have been a high-energy Husky showcase into a methodical, dominant performance in favor of the Scarlet and Grey, who want to show everyone why they are the reigning national champions and the top-ranked team in the nation.

Final Score: #1 Ohio State 28, Washington 13

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#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss (-2.5) (O/U: 57.5)

Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

3:30 pm, ABC

This edition of the Magnolia Bowl promises to be a strong matchup once again as reputation and momentum collide under the warm September sun in Oxford. LSU arrives having earned a lot of early-season acclaim, with wins over Clemson and Florida seeming to generate buzz that Brian Kelly might finally have the Tigers trending back toward national relevance, yet skepticism lingers nowadays with their opponents struggling to find wins of their own. Ole Miss, on the other hand, carries a high-octane offense led by Trinidad Chambliss, whose journey from backup to Ferris State transfer has been anything but subtle, and the Rebels’ ability to stretch the field horizontally and vertically provides a continuous threat that forces opponents to respect every inch of grass. While LSU boasts balance across skill positions and emerging stars in both the backfield and receiving corps, the road environment in Oxford and Ole Miss’ home-field energy present an entirely different challenge. This game feels less like a statement of talent and more like a proving ground, where LSU must show that the early praise is earned and Ole Miss can demonstrate its offense isn’t just the sum of its parts. Expect an SEC classic with momentum swinging back and forth as each team seeks to seize control.

Best Bet: Ole Miss -2.5

Ole Miss has shown it can dominate the field with Chambliss spreading the ball both vertically and horizontally, using a combination of precision passing, athleticism, and timing that forces defenses to cover sideline-to-sideline. The Rebels’ supporting cast only strengthens that threat, with backs like Kewan Lacy and Logan Diggs capable of breaking big runs and receivers such as Harrison Wallace III and Cayden Lee stretching the field on every snap, while Ole Miss’ offensive line provides enough depth and experience to sustain drives and protect Chambliss in high-pressure situations. LSU, while talented and balanced, leans on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s arm, a versatile running corps, and playmakers who can turn short throws into explosive gains, yet their defense, though competent early in the season, has yet to face a sustained SEC-caliber passing attack like Ole Miss’. Despite the Tigers’ promise, the Rebels’ depth, efficiency, and ability to capitalize on key situational moments make them the team most likely to control the flow of the game and wear down opponents. Ole Miss’ adaptability, combined with their vertical approach and the energy of a raucous home crowd, positions them to seize crucial advantages late in the contest, and they should be able to cover the -2.5 number to win by at least a field goal.

Prediction

The game starts with both teams testing each other’s defenses, LSU moving the ball effectively through the air with Caden Durham likely out while Ole Miss counters with a handful of deep completions that immediately put the Tigers on alert. Chambliss connects on a couple of explosive passes early, giving the Rebels a modest lead, but LSU responds with methodical drives, mixing short passes and inside runs to keep the chains moving and momentum alive. By halftime, the game is tightly contested, with neither side able to fully dominate; Ole Miss holds a slight edge thanks to key third-down conversions and large chunk plays. The second half intensifies as LSU drives to even the score, relying on Nussmeier’s arm and a couple of significant runs to answer every Rebel push, yet turnovers and Ole Miss’ ability to rotate playmakers begin to tilt the field in Oxford’s favor. In the fourth quarter, LSU remains within striking distance, forcing Ole Miss to air it out and rely on quick strikes to maintain control. Despite a late surge by the Tigers, the Rebels’ situational execution will be the difference as it allows them to hold off the comeback attempt, ultimately securing a hard-fought, narrow victory in one of the SEC’s more anticipated showdowns of the season.

Final Score: #13 Ole Miss 35, #4 LSU 28

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Auburn @ #9 Texas A&M (-6.5) (O/U: 51.5)

Kyle Field, College Station, TX

3:30 pm, ESPN

Auburn heads into this matchup still feeling the sting of a road loss to Oklahoma, where the officiating dominated postgame conversation almost as much as the football itself, and Hugh Freeze now faces the task of keeping his team locked in despite that distraction. Jackson Arnold took a beating against the Sooners’ pass rush, but his connection with Cam Coleman continues to be the bright spot, and this week provides Coleman with a very personal stage as he lines up against the program he once pledged to before flipping to Auburn late in his recruitment. Freeze’s squad has shown flashes of balance offensively, but penalties, inconsistency on third downs, and the inability to sustain drives in Norman raised red flags that must be addressed quickly. Texas A&M, meanwhile, comes into this game rested after a bye week and brimming with momentum following its dramatic win at Notre Dame that many around College Station view as the spark for a season-changing run. With a loud Kyle Field behind them and revenge fresh on their minds after last year’s double-overtime loss to the Tigers, the Aggies will look to overwhelm Auburn with tempo, depth, and confidence as they enter their SEC opener.

Best Bet: Cam Coleman o49.5 Receiving Yards

While Auburn’s ground game and quarterback mobility will likely be emphasized, the most intriguing player on the field is Coleman, who has been Auburn’s most consistent perimeter weapon despite constant defensive attention. This game presents a unique storyline, as Coleman’s decision to turn away from Texas A&M remains fresh in the minds of Aggie fans, and such emotional fuel often translates into an even greater workload for a player with something to prove. His blend of size, speed, and body control makes him nearly impossible to take away completely, especially when Auburn’s offensive line is able to buy Arnold even a second or two of extra time in the pocket. Texas A&M’s secondary has improved from last season, but it remains vulnerable to explosive plays down the sideline, and Coleman has excelled in creating separation when defenses press or shade safeties elsewhere. The expectation is that Auburn will manufacture multiple opportunities for him to stretch the field vertically, and if game flow forces them into passing situations, his targets will only increase. A receiving line north of 50 yards feels like a safe projection, and his chances to eclipse that comfortably are strong given both talent and narrative context.

Prediction

Momentum and home-field advantage both swing heavily toward Texas A&M, as the Aggies not only had a week to prepare but also carry renewed belief after a defining victory that suggests this group is capable of breaking from its past underachieving patterns. Marcel Reed has quickly become one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the SEC, and his ability to keep defenses honest with both his arm and legs makes him a nightmare to game-plan against, particularly when paired with a deep stable of running backs and a receiving corps that now includes multiple proven playmakers. Auburn’s defense is capable of causing disruption in spots, but sustaining pressure and limiting explosive gains over four quarters against A&M’s offensive tempo will be difficult in a hostile environment. On the other side, Auburn’s offense will show resilience, especially with several players motivated in this type of setting, yet the consistency required to keep pace with A&M’s scoring punch will be tested with every possession. Ultimately, the Aggies’ advantage in depth puts them in a position to seize control in the second half and deliver a victory that reinforces their legitimacy in the SEC.

Final Score: #9 Texas A&M 27, Auburn 20

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#11 Indiana (-8.5) @ Iowa (O/U: 47.5)

Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

3:30 pm, Peacock

Indiana had the look of a team that might be untouchable after their annihilation of Illinois that left the rest of the league staring at the scoreboard in disbelief, but college football has a way of humbling even the hottest programs when they venture into Kinnick Stadium. The Hoosiers arrive with a balanced machine built on Fernando Mendoza’s confident command of the passing game and a ground attack that churns out yards in waves, but Iowa represents a different kind of test because their defense always seems to punch above its weight when the lights are brightest. For all the offensive fireworks Indiana has shown, this matchup feels less like a track meet and more like a pressure-cooker, as Iowa thrives on grinding out ugly possessions, forcing punts, and waiting for the opponent to blink first. The Hawkeyes, while still trying to solve the eternal puzzle of fielding a consistently dynamic offense, flashed some progress against Rutgers last week, finally putting together drives that looked coordinated rather than chaotic. Yet, this game won’t be won with one or two explosive plays, but it will instead hinge on who controls tempo, which line can carve out breathing room, and which sideline maintains poise once the inevitable momentum swing happens inside a notoriously hostile stadium.

Best Bet: Iowa +8.5

I’m looking more into the spread than anything else because Iowa catching points at home is always a dangerous proposition, and Indiana could find themselves stuck in a lower-possession game than they prefer, especially considering that this is a possible trap spot following their blowout win last week and their bye and road trip to Oregon in the next two. The Hoosiers want space, tempo, and freedom to run their system, but Kinnick is famous for shrinking the field and creating claustrophobic situations that make even top quarterbacks second-guess their reads. Iowa’s pass rush isn’t dominant in sack totals, but it forces hurried decisions, which pairs perfectly with a secondary that plays tighter coverage than most. Indiana has been rolling downhill with little resistance, but every season has that moment where the ride slows down, and this could be one of them. The Hoosiers may still walk away with the win, but asking them to pull away comfortably in Kinnick against a defense that thrives on making games ugly feels like too tall an order.

Prediction

In the end, this game feels like a lower-scoring affair that could rely more on which run defense will rise the tallest with these two running back rooms, and Iowa’s knack for dragging talented opponents into uncomfortable situations is exactly why this one will be far tighter than Indiana would like. The Hoosiers, however, clearly possess the more polished balance in their attack, with Mendoza spreading the ball around to a deep receiving corps and the versatility of their three-headed monster in the backfield giving their entire offense the ability to remain a threat, but it’s more about what you can sustain when everything gets condensed. Iowa will rely on Mark Gronowski’s veteran leadership to steady the ship in this type of game, and though their offense doesn’t generate highlight reels, it can pick up enough yardage to flip field position and allow the defense to dictate tone. Special teams, red-zone trips, and third-down conversions will be magnified, because both units know that wasting opportunities is essentially handing momentum to the other side. Indiana’s edge in talent and depth should allow them to eventually grind out control, but expect the Hawkeyes to make this a bruising, trench-heavy battle that reminds the Hoosiers just how unforgiving a trip to Iowa City can be.

Final Score: #11 Indiana 24, Iowa 17

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#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia (-2.5) (O/U: 54.5)

Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA

7:30 pm, ABC

When Alabama and Georgia line up under the lights in Athens, the stakes will carry the weight of more than just a regular-season conference game, because every time these programs meet, the result shifts the balance of power in the SEC. Both teams had an extra week to prepare, which feels fitting given the history, and that luxury only adds fuel to a matchup already defined by grudges, narratives, and national title implications. For Kirby Smart, who is fresh off a double-overtime comeback win in Knoxville, this is another chance to prove that Georgia has finally moved beyond Alabama’s shadow, a task that has haunted him despite the Bulldogs’ trophy case filling up in recent years. Across the field, Kalen DeBoer enters Athens looking for the type of victory that could reset Alabama’s perception nationally, as the Tide’s Week 1 stumble against Florida State still lingers despite two emphatic wins since. The chess match between DeBoer’s vertical passing attack and Georgia’s retooled but immensely talented defense will determine much of the evening’s rhythm, yet both sidelines know the battle in the trenches is likely to define whether this contest turns into another classic or a one-sided statement.

Best Bet: Germie Bernard o57.5 Receiving Yards

Last year’s hero against Georgia was Ryan Williams, and Glenn Schumann’s secondary will remember that as they line up across from him, making his numbers pretty hard to match this time around in Athens. However, they do have another deep threat on the roster in Germie Bernard, who should get a ton of attention from Ty Simpson again, especially if they find themselves trailing. Bernard, who followed DeBoer from Washington prior to last season, has earned a lot more production over the past few weeks, not only because of his reliable hands but also due to his ability to manipulate defensive backs with subtle route adjustments in the middle of the field. Georgia’s secondary has undeniable star power and future NFL talent, but it has also shown some cracks in coverage during the first month of the season, particularly when asked to deal with receivers who excel at separating in tight spaces. The Bulldogs prefer to rely on pressure to force hurried throws, yet their pass rush hasn’t been as consistent as past units, leaving Stockton’s defense more vulnerable when opponents protect long enough for routes to develop. Bernard thrives in precisely those situations, and Alabama’s offensive line, returning to full strength with Jam Miller’s presence in the backfield, should provide the balance needed to keep Georgia from blitzing recklessly. While Ryan Williams may draw the spotlight on deeper shots, Bernard’s knack for finding soft spots and Simpson’s comfort in targeting him make his yards the strongest play here.

Prediction

I believe that Alabama jumps out very quickly in the first quarter, with Simpson launching deep shots to rattle Georgia’s secondary and give the Tide an early edge, but Georgia will have the answers by leaning on Nate Frazier’s running to balance Stockton’s throws and prevent Alabama’s pass rush from dictating the game. Through the middle quarters, the Tide’s receivers make their mark and Miller’s return steadies the ground game, but Georgia’s defensive front forces enough stops to keep things level. By the fourth quarter, the Bulldogs’ depth and physicality begin to tilt the contest. Stockton finds a rhythm with his receivers, sustaining drives that chew clock and wear on Alabama’s defense. With the score tied late, Georgia strings together a slow, bruising drive that ends in a late Frazier touchdown to take the lead, finally swinging momentum for good, and while Alabama might threaten to answer on its final possession, the Bulldogs ultimately claim the long-awaited breakthrough against the Tide.

Final Score: #5 Georgia 34, #17 Alabama 27

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#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State (-3.5) (O/U: 53.5)

Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

7:30 pm, NBC/Peacock

The stage could not be bigger than a White Out in Happy Valley, and for once the spectacle actually matches the stakes, because Oregon arrives carrying both the burden of its reigning B1G crown and the sting of last year’s Rose Bowl collapse, while Penn State looks like a team finally capable of making a push for a national title. Penn State enters not just undefeated but with the rare combination of returning stars and added depth, and Drew Allar’s steady presence under center allows James Franklin to run an offense that has the look of a finished product rather than a work in progress. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen give the Nittany Lions two hammers in the backfield, and a rebuilt receiving corps only broadens what Andy Kotelnicki can scheme. As if that weren’t enough, the addition of Jim Knowles gives the defense a new dimension, because his ability to pressure quarterbacks and mask coverages has already elevated a unit stacked with speed. Oregon, though, isn’t arriving to play the role of guest; the Ducks are still brash, fast, and determined to erase the bitter memory of their Rose Bowl humiliation to Ohio State. Dante Moore has shown flashes of stardom, the offensive line is still among the country’s best despite turnover, and Dan Lanning’s defense remains physical even after NFL departures. It feels like the perfect storm, with one team loaded with experience and discipline, the other brimming with swagger and urgency, colliding in a setting designed to magnify both.

Best Bet: Over 53.5

Both teams bring very talented, disciplined defenses into this matchup, with the Nittany Lions built on physicality and depth in the trenches while the Ducks rely on athleticism and speed at every level. On paper, that profile might suggest a low-scoring slugfest, but the reality is that the offensive firepower on both sidelines feels too dynamic to stay bottled up for four quarters, especially in a game with playoff-level intensity. I have some questions regarding Drew Allar’s ability to take over these massive games, which is why I think the run game will be elite, but I think he’ll play just good enough to make the Nittany Lions dangerous in the passing game and on sustained drives that might be nearly impossible to completely shut down. Oregon’s tempo and explosive playmakers, on the other hand, can erase deficits in a blink and stretch defenses thin in ways few teams can counter for a full 60 minutes, and even with two stout defenses, the White Out setting tends to encourage aggressive play-calling, heightened urgency, and wild momentum swings, which tilts this contest toward points rather than punts. With quarterbacks capable of extending plays, skill talent that can break open in space, and two coaching staffs unafraid to gamble in big moments, this showdown is far more likely to evolve into a shootout than a defensive struggle, and clearing the game total seems almost too realistic, especially considering the outcome of last year’s B1G Championship shootout.

Prediction

Games like this are usually decided by who can stay poised when chaos strikes, and while Oregon has the firepower to throw punches that land, Penn State’s maturity and depth give them the sturdier foundation. Dante Moore is poised enough to handle the noise for four quarters and talented enough to test even Penn State’s secondary, and his receivers have the speed to win matchups, but keeping that rhythm consistent across four quarters against Jim Knowles’ pressure looks is another matter entirely. Oregon’s running duo of Noah Whittington and Dierre Hill Jr. will generate moments of balance, yet the longer the contest goes, the more the Ducks will be tasked with third-and-long situations that tilt the advantage toward Penn State’s front. On the other side, Allar’s efficiency paired with a punishing ground attack means the Nittany Lions can dictate pace, wear down defenders, and create opportunities for chunk plays when Oregon’s safeties creep closer to the box. The White Out setting only magnifies each possession, and history has shown that visiting teams rarely finish as strong as they begin. Oregon is good enough to keep this close and force Penn State into uncomfortable drives, but the Nittany Lions’ ability to rotate weapons, avoid self-inflicted mistakes, and finish series in the red zone will ultimately swing momentum their way in the second half.

Final Score: #3 Penn State 38, #6 Oregon 31

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Make sure to stay tuned this weekend for one of the more stacked and exciting weekends of the college football season!