From Champaign to Salt Lake City and beyond, every major conference seems determined this week to remind us that the SEC does not monopolize college football’s drama, as the B1G, Big XII, and even the mid-majors have conspired to deliver a weekend overflowing with storylines that promise chaos, heartbreak, and a few perfectly justified Saturday meltdowns, all building into what should be a revealing Week 4 of the 2025 season. In the biggest matchups, we have teams looking to prove early-season legitimacy against long-standing rivals, programs aiming to shake off last year’s disappointments while carrying new quarterbacks and fresh faces into hostile environments, and a handful of squads navigating emotional returns, unexpected breakout players, and revenge narratives that could make or break confidence for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, other intriguing contests quietly demand attention as coaches try to manage young rosters, maintain offensive balance, and keep defenses from unraveling, setting the stage for drama that extends far beyond the scores themselves and reminds fans why mid-September Saturdays can feel both ridiculous and essential. With that in mind, let’s look further into the top games and preview what to expect throughout the weekend:

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Saturday, September 20

#17 Texas Tech @ #16 Utah (-3.5) (O/U: 56.5)

Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT

Noon, FOX

Salt Lake City will host a clash of contrasting identities as Texas Tech and Utah meet with unblemished records but vastly different reputations to defend. The Red Raiders enter with one of the nation’s most dynamic aerial attacks, led by veteran quarterback Behren Morton, whose mastery of the Air Raid has already produced multiple 300-yard passing games this season. Receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin are Morton’s primary weapons, capable of turning short passes into explosive gains, while Miami (OH) transfer Reggie Virgil provides a vertical threat that can stretch Utah’s disciplined secondary. Texas Tech’s rushing attack, however, has been hampered by injury, leaving the backfield without a proven 20-carry option, meaning Morton will be asked to shoulder the bulk of the offense. Utah, conversely, is attempting a rebound from last season’s rare losing campaign. With New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier at quarterback, the Utes offer mobility and playmaking, blending designed runs and zone-read options to test a Red Raiders defense still integrating multiple transfers. Anchored by Spencer Fano, Utah’s offensive line provides stability, while Morgan Scalley’s defense, led by linebacker Lander Barton and a seasoned secondary, is poised to challenge Morton in a hostile environment. This game promises a back-and-forth tempo battle where explosive plays, quarterback efficiency, and in-game adjustments will dictate the winner, highlighting the contrasting philosophies of an air attack against a ground-and-control scheme.

Best Bet: Texas Tech ML

I was honestly kind of surprised to see Texas Tech as an underdog for this game because, to me, they entered this season with a little more promise and experience, and Utah, while they’re decent, was given way too much credit for beating an awful UCLA team in Week 1. Behren Morton has the experience and skill to orchestrate an Air Raid attack capable of exploiting Utah’s defensive tendencies, while the perimeter talent of Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin ensures the Raiders can create chunk plays against a Utah secondary still adjusting to Big XII opponents after last year’s struggles. The Red Raiders’ tempo and volume passing put pressure on Utah’s front seven, forcing linebackers to cover sideline-to-sideline and opening opportunities for explosive completions. On the other side of the ball, Joey McGuire’s unit has integrated transfers on both sides effectively, with a defensive front capable of generating timely disruption against a Utes offense led by Devon Dampier, who is still developing chemistry with his targets. Texas Tech’s overall explosiveness on both sides of the ball could swing the game in their favor, and the Red Raiders’ willingness to push tempo and score quickly plays directly into their advantage. While Utah has the home-field crowd, the Utes’ offensive line and defense are still adjusting to Big XII competition, making this a scenario where Texas Tech’s more dynamic, well-coordinated game plan could tilt the scales toward an upset. In a close, back-and-forth contest, the underdog Red Raiders have the much higher offensive ceiling and situational edge to come away with the victory.

Prediction

This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth Big XII showcase, with Utah trying to grind down possessions behind its offensive line and dual-threat quarterback while Texas Tech aims to turn it into a track meet with Morton airing it out. Expect the Utes to lean heavily on Dampier’s mobility early, using designed runs and zone reads to test Tech’s rebuilt defensive front, which has added plenty of transfers but remains unproven against a unit as physical as Utah’s. The Red Raiders will counter by pushing tempo and forcing Utah’s linebackers to cover sideline-to-sideline, banking on Morton’s rhythm passing to offset the crowd noise and relentless pass rush. Ultimately, this will come down to situational playmaking: Utah thrives at home when it shortens the game and forces mistakes, while Texas Tech, like I mentioned earlier, thrives when it builds momentum with explosive plays and stacks points quickly. The Red Raiders’ offensive ceiling is undeniably higher, and their defense, though still developing, has just enough new talent in the front seven to create timely disruption. Utah will trade punches into the second half, but if Tech’s receivers win matchups on the perimeter, the Utes will struggle to keep pace once the Red Raiders tilt the tempo their way.

Final Score: #17 Texas Tech 34, #16 Utah 27

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SMU @ TCU (-6.5) (O/U: 63.5)

Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

Noon, ESPN2

The Iron Skillet rivalry may be approaching a hiatus, but this year’s matchup still carries the drama, intensity, and storylines that have defined the contest for decades. SMU comes in with a sense of unfinished business after a breakout 2024 campaign that ended with disappointment, but head coach Rhett Lashlee’s roster remains talented and battle-tested, capable of competing with top programs. Kevin Jennings’ Air Raid offense has flourished early, pushing tempo, spreading the field, and using a deep array of weapons, including Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson. UCLA transfer TJ Harden adds balance to what is otherwise a pass-heavy identity, giving SMU the ability to mix in a running game and sustain drives when necessary. Yet defensive struggles loom large; shaky performances against Baylor and Missouri State exposed coverage gaps and susceptibility to explosive plays, leaving questions about whether the Mustangs can slow down a high-powered TCU passing attack. Sonny Dykes’ Frogs enter motivated, seeking revenge for last year’s embarrassment in Dallas. Quarterback Josh Hoover has emerged as a dual-threat with Heisman-caliber numbers, supported by Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack IV. With both teams built to score in chunks, the stage is set for a fast-paced, high-scoring rivalry clash that could define early-season momentum for either side.

Best Bet: Jordan Dwyer o79.5 Receiving Yards

Jordan Dwyer has quickly become Josh Hoover’s most reliable weapon, and the Iron Skillet provides the perfect environment for him to deliver a massive performance. TCU’s offense operates at a relentless pace, blending tempo, spacing, and precision passing to maximize production, and while Hoover distributes the ball to multiple targets, Dwyer remains the focal point, consistently winning contested catches and stretching the field vertically. SMU’s secondary has struggled with speed and route discipline this season, surrendering big chunks to Baylor and Missouri State, weaknesses that are likely to be amplified against Hoover’s rhythm passing and accurate deep shots. Even when SMU generates pressure upfront, Hoover’s offensive line has yet to allow a sack, providing Dwyer ample windows to operate. Game script also favors volume passing: regardless of whether the Mustangs slow down the run early, Hoover will need to throw 35-40 times to keep pace, creating more opportunities for Dwyer to accumulate yards. His versatility as both a deep threat and a reliable chain-mover across the middle positions him to ultimately reach 80 receiving yards. With explosive plays, intermediate chains, and TCU’s tempo, this prop is matchup-driven, strategically grounded, and ideally suited for a game expected to feature multiple scoring bursts from both sides of the field.

Prediction

This contest promises the classic back-and-forth scoring that has become synonymous with recent Iron Skillet games, but TCU’s roster depth and balance give them an edge in sustaining drives and exploiting defensive mismatches. SMU will lean heavily on Jennings’ fast-paced passing and the talents of Hudson and Brinson to keep the scoreboard moving, but early-season defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exposed against Hoover and TCU’s versatile corps of receivers. Expect TCU to blend tempo, short-yardage precision, and deep downfield strikes to force SMU into reactive situations, where turnovers or missed opportunities could swing momentum. SMU’s backfield, anchored by Harden, will provide some offensive balance, but maintaining possession against TCU’s disciplined front seven for four quarters will be a constant challenge. Key moments will revolve around third-down conversions, defensive adjustments, and quick-strike responses, all favoring a team with cohesion and depth. While SMU’s offense can produce bursts of brilliance, TCU’s ability to rotate players, sustain pressure, and exploit coverage gaps should allow the Frogs to gradually pull ahead. Fans should anticipate multiple lead changes, high-scoring sequences, and moments of drama, but TCU’s balanced roster, tempo control, and home-field advantage make them the likely victor in this hard-fought Fort Worth showdown.

Final Score: TCU 45, SMU 38

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Arkansas (-7.5) @ Memphis (O/U: 61.5)

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN

Noon, ABC

Arkansas travels to Memphis for the first meeting between these programs in over a decade, with both teams bringing contrasting styles and stakes to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. The Razorbacks, representing the SEC, rely on quarterback Taylen Green’s dual-threat ability and a roster bolstered heavily by transfers, aiming to stretch the field vertically and keep defenses off balance. Green has shown remarkable poise early in the season, demonstrating the kind of mobility and arm strength that can create explosive plays on the move, while a backfield rotation featuring both bruising and agile options keeps opponents guessing. Arkansas’ offensive line, though talented, has yet to face a front seven as disciplined and disruptive as Memphis’ on a consistent basis. On the other side, the Tigers have thrived under Ryan Silverfield’s guidance, blending transfer talent with homegrown players to form a cohesive unit capable of challenging SEC opponents. Quarterback Brendon Lewis has emerged as a stabilizing force, threading passes with timing and mobility that allow Memphis to exploit mismatches while their defense, anchored by William Whitlow Jr. and Sam Brumfield, applies consistent pressure. In a matchup where execution and situational awareness will dictate outcomes, both teams have the potential to deliver a high-octane contest, making this an early-season measuring stick for Arkansas’ resilience and Memphis’ ability to defend at a high level at home.

Best Bet: Memphis +7.5

While I believe they could even win this game outright, I’m just going to play it safe and take +7.5 as it’s one of the sharper plays on the slate. The Tigers have gelled more quickly than many anticipated, particularly on the defensive side, where Silverfield’s front seven has already shown the ability to disrupt rhythm, force negative plays, and create turnovers. Arkansas’ offensive line has been pretty solid this season, and they should be able to put up a lot of points in this matchup. However, I’m afraid that the Razorbacks could find themselves in another lookahead spot here, especially considering they have a massive home showdown in Fayetteville next weekend with Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Memphis’ offense aligns with Arkansas’ defensive vulnerabilities. Brendon Lewis thrives in short-to-intermediate passing lanes, and his backfield trio of Lewis, Sutton Smith, and Greg Desrosiers Jr., combining explosiveness with balance to stretch the field horizontally and vertically. The Tigers’ tempo-friendly scheme favors quick strikes and keeps Arkansas’ big front on its heels, while home-field noise further complicates communication and line calls for the visitors. Their environment has produced multiple upsets in similar situations, and Memphis’ confidence against Power Four opponents is higher than many realize. Arkansas may still win outright, but Memphis’ ability to control tempo, absorb blows, and exploit matchups makes them a highly live underdog, with the spread representing not just a cover but a realistic path to a near-even moneyline victory in a fiercely competitive game for the Tigers.

Prediction

Expect a competitive, back-and-forth showdown with momentum swinging multiple times, hinging on execution in critical moments and situational play. Arkansas will rely heavily on Green’s dual-threat capability, combining vertical passing with scrambles and designed runs to test Memphis’ defensive discipline. The Razorbacks’ offensive line has size and talent, and if they can carve lanes for their backfield rotation, Arkansas could dictate possession early. Memphis, however, has proven adept at weathering pressure, maintaining composure, and exploiting gaps in protection, with Lewis delivering accurate, quick passes to open-field playmakers. Defensively, the Tigers’ disruptive front seven, along with Whitlow and Brumfield, creates opportunities to force turnovers and alter drive momentum. The crowd will be a significant factor, amplifying Memphis’ energy and challenging Arkansas’ focus on communication. Ultimately, the game is likely to remain within one score deep into the fourth quarter, with Arkansas’ battle-tested SEC pedigree clashing against Memphis’ rhythm, balance, and home-field confidence. While the Razorbacks have more top-end talent, Memphis’ ability to control tempo, win critical individual matchups, and capitalize on Arkansas’ mistakes and turnovers makes them a strong option to pull off a major upset and put themselves on a path to a Group of Five College Football Playoff bid.

Final Score: Memphis 38, Arkansas 35

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#21 Michigan (-1.5) @ Nebraska (O/U: 47.5)

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE

3:30 pm, CBS

Michigan heads to Lincoln for its B1G opener with a roster still ironing out questions in key positions, particularly at quarterback and in the receiving corps. While the Wolverines cruised past Central Michigan in their first true test of depth and cohesion, the real challenge comes against a Nebraska team that has looked far sharper than anticipated in September. The Cornhuskers’ sophomore quarterback has developed chemistry with his receiving corps, and the Nebraska defense has been stout through the air, pressuring opponents and forcing mistakes in a way that could disrupt Michigan’s rhythm. Memorial Stadium, always a high-energy environment, will amplify the stakes, creating a pressure-cooker atmosphere for a Wolverines team that thrives on execution but occasionally struggles with consistency. Both teams have dynamic playmakers capable of explosive moments, but this matchup will be defined by situational football, including third-down conversions, red-zone efficiency, and ball security. Nebraska’s ability to control the pace and generate pressure against Michigan’s young offensive line may swing the balance, while the Wolverines will look to establish their run game to open up passing opportunities. This contest carries not just standings implications but also a narrative weight, giving the home team motivation to prove that their hot start is legitimate and that Michigan’s national reputation will not go untested on the road.

Best Bet: Nebraska ML

Nebraska presents a compelling case to take the outright victory in this opener, especially considering how the Cornhuskers have shown a level of cohesion on both sides of the ball that belies early-season expectations, particularly in their ability to generate pressure and disrupt timing in the passing game. Michigan’s offensive rhythm, still dependent on youth and in-game adjustments, could struggle under sustained defensive intensity from a front seven that has already shown it can both rush the passer and defend against explosive plays. Nebraska’s quarterback has thrived in quick reads and tempo-based schemes, which could exploit the Wolverines’ inconsistent secondary. Additionally, the Cornhuskers’ home-field advantage at Memorial Stadium is significant, with fans creating a challenging environment that can rattle visiting teams early. While Michigan has talent and depth, Nebraska’s combination of aggressive defense, an efficient offensive attack, and situational execution gives them the tools to control the game in critical moments. The matchup favors a team capable of managing pressure, forcing errors, and taking advantage of field position, which are precisely the strengths Nebraska has displayed this month. Against a Michigan squad still finding its footing in high-leverage situations, the Cornhuskers have a clear path to victory.

Prediction

From the opening kickoff, Nebraska is likely to leverage its home-field energy and defensive efficiency to challenge Michigan’s tempo and disrupt its passing schemes. The Wolverines will attempt to impose their will with downhill running and play-action setups, but the Cornhuskers’ defensive front is disciplined and quick, capable of forcing Michigan into third-and-long situations repeatedly. Nebraska’s offensive approach will emphasize quick reads, tempo, and methodical exploitation of the middle of the field, forcing Michigan to defend against both the run and short-to-intermediate passing attacks. Field position, turnovers, and execution in the red zone will be decisive, as both teams have capable skill players but remain vulnerable under sustained pressure. If Nebraska can create early stops and capitalize on Michigan’s mistakes, they can control momentum and dictate play without needing to dominate every statistic. Michigan’s talent will allow them to keep the game close, but the Cornhuskers’ combination of situational awareness, home support, and aggressive defensive strategy provides the edge. By maintaining composure and executing efficiently in key moments, Nebraska can claim a narrow but meaningful victory, reinforcing the legitimacy of their early-season success in front of a passionate home crowd.

Final Score: Nebraska 21, #21 Michigan 17

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#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma (-7.5) (O/U: 47.5)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK

3:30 pm, ABC

Norman will host one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend, as Auburn ventures west to challenge Oklahoma in a clash that has early postseason implications for both programs. Auburn enters this matchup with a growing identity behind a physical rushing attack and improved quarterback play, blending tempo with misdirection to keep defenses off balance. The Tigers’ defense, while not without flaws, has been opportunistic in creating turnovers and limiting big plays, helping them secure confidence-building wins to start the season. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has once again emerged as a legitimate contender in the B1G thanks to steady quarterback play, balance in the run game, and a defense that has proven far more disciplined than in years past. The Sooners’ front seven will be tested against Auburn’s offensive line, which thrives on creating lanes for a stable of backs, particularly Jeremiah Cobb, who has been critical in establishing consistency. Home-field advantage is always significant in Norman, but Auburn’s physicality and creativity present unique problems that could test the Sooners’ defensive structure. With both teams boasting contrasting strengths, Oklahoma leaning on efficiency and Auburn emphasizing physical control, the matchup will come down to which side can impose its preferred style and sustain momentum for four quarters.

Best Bet: Jeremiah Cobb o43.5 Rushing Yards

For Auburn to compete on the road, yes, Jackson Arnold will need to play a major role in beating his former team, but Cobb will also need to play a central role in sustaining drives and alleviating pressure on the passing game. The Tigers’ scheme is designed to spread defenses out and create natural running lanes, giving him opportunities to hit second-level defenders with vision and burst. Oklahoma’s front seven has been stout against traditional rushing looks, but they’ve occasionally been vulnerable to well-designed counter and zone-blocking concepts, which is precisely the style Auburn uses to maximize Cobb’s efficiency. With Auburn likely to lean heavily on its ground game to control tempo, Cobb should see a steady workload, even if his carries are split with other backs. The yardage number set at 43.5 feels pretty low relative to his role in the offensive plan, especially given that he hasn’t ran for less than 70 yards all season and that Auburn’s game plan will aim to stay balanced and avoid long-yardage situations against an Oklahoma defense that thrives on pressure in obvious passing downs. If the Tigers can establish their offensive line early and force Oklahoma to respect the run throughout, Cobb has a strong chance to surpass this mark, especially if Auburn sustains enough drives to give him 10-12 touches in critical spots. His involvement makes this over very valuable.

Prediction

This contest has the potential to swing on physicality at the line of scrimmage and execution in key possessions. Auburn’s offensive design will emphasize patience, leaning on Cobb and the ground game to methodically challenge Oklahoma’s defensive integrity, while sprinkling in play-action to stretch the secondary. The Sooners, conversely, will rely on rhythm passing and situational running to keep Auburn’s defense off balance, forcing the Tigers to defend sideline-to-sideline. Auburn’s secondary has shown vulnerability against precision passing attacks, and Oklahoma’s quarterback is well-positioned to exploit mismatches in the intermediate game. That said, the Tigers’ ability to generate pressure with their defensive front could create turnovers, swinging momentum if the Sooners get careless. This game feels destined to be decided in the fourth quarter, with Auburn trying to slow the pace and Oklahoma pushing for explosive plays that tilt the scoreboard. Home-field advantage, combined with the Sooners’ efficiency on third down, gives them the upper hand in a matchup where Auburn’s ground game will keep it competitive but not enough to finish the upset. Expect a tightly fought contest where Oklahoma pulls away late with execution in the red zone and depth across both lines of scrimmage.

Final Score: #11 Oklahoma 27, #22 Auburn 20

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Tulane @ #13 Ole Miss (-13.5) (O/U: 61.5)

Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

3:30 pm, ESPN

Momentum defines both programs heading into Oxford, where Tulane arrives brimming with confidence after a sharp start under Jon Sumrall, and Ole Miss looks to keep rolling despite losing its starting quarterback early in the season. For the Green Wave, Jake Retzlaff has quickly proven himself more than just a caretaker; he extends plays with his legs, tests defenses vertically, and leans on Maurice Turner and Zuberi Mobley to balance the offense with timely runs. That versatility has allowed Tulane to pile up explosive gains and dictate tempo against less talented opponents, but the step up to an SEC roster presents a different challenge. Ole Miss counters with Trinidad Chambliss, who has stepped in smoothly after Austin Simmons’ injury, giving the Rebels confidence that their high-powered attack won’t slow down. Chambliss benefits from a loaded supporting cast, with Kewan Lacy thriving as a downhill runner and Harrison Wallace III stretching defenses deep. Tulane’s opportunistic defense thrives on forcing turnovers, but Ole Miss’ ability to spread the field horizontally and vertically forces opponents to cover every blade of grass. This matchup carries the feel of a tempo tug-of-war, as Tulane tries to strike fast and Ole Miss leans on balance, physicality, and depth to seize control as the game wears on.

Best Bet: Over 61.5

The total sits in a range where both offenses appear well-positioned to clear it, and the explosive potential on each side strengthens the case. Ole Miss consistently pushes the pace at home, averaging in the mid-40s offensively and showing no hesitation to air it out when defenses load the box. Chambliss has embraced a vertical approach, with Wallace emerging as a frequent deep-ball target who can flip the field in a single snap. Complementing that, Lacy provides balance with his ability to gash second-level defenders, particularly when linebackers are stretched thin by play-action. Tulane’s identity under Retzlaff thrives on tempo and space, with designed rollouts and broken plays often leading to chunk yardage through the air, while Turner and Mobley give them enough balance to keep drives alive. The Green Wave have scored on nearly every type of defense they’ve faced, and against an Ole Miss unit that can bend when stretched, they should find opportunities. Add in the possibility of turnovers creating sudden short fields, and the ingredients for a high-scoring showcase are all there. Both teams attack quickly, trust aggressive coordinators, and have the skill players to punish mistakes, which makes the Over not just appealing but firmly justified.

Prediction

For Tulane, success hinges on managing Ole Miss’ front seven while keeping Retzlaff upright long enough to exploit mismatches. He has shown the knack for extending plays, and receivers like Shazz Preston can capitalize when defenses break down, but sustaining long drives in this environment will be difficult. Ole Miss, on the other hand, can rotate skill players at will, which allows Chambliss to keep distributing without needing to take unnecessary risks. Their offensive line has been consistent in opening lanes for Lacy, and as possessions add up, the Rebels’ ability to wear down defenses becomes a decisive factor. Tulane’s opportunistic secondary may deliver a spark, perhaps an interception or two, but Ole Miss has proven resilient in countering mistakes with quick scoring drives of its own. The Green Wave will land punches, particularly early when tempo catches the Rebels adjusting, yet the depth and physicality Ole Miss brings should steadily assert control. As the fourth quarter unfolds, expect Tulane to still be within striking distance but forced into predictable passing situations, where Ole Miss’ pressure can close the door. This one should be competitive and entertaining, but the Rebels’ roster strength and SEC-caliber balance give them the advantage to take care of business at home.

Final Score: #13 Ole Miss 38, Tulane 27

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South Carolina @ #23 Missouri (-9.5) (O/U: 48.5)

Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

7 pm, ESPN

Missouri enters the weekend riding an undefeated start, with an offense that has consistently imposed its will on opponents through physicality and precise execution. Beau Pribula has directed timing-based routes with pinpoint accuracy, spreading the ball to a deep group of receivers while maintaining rhythm in the passing game. Complementing this aerial attack, Ahmad Hardy has emerged as a workhorse back, combining power, balance, and vision to create yardage both inside the tackles and off the edges. South Carolina’s defensive front has talent, but a lack of depth makes containing a player of Hardy’s skill extremely difficult, especially when paired with Missouri’s misdirection schemes and tempo shifts designed to manipulate gaps and force defenders out of position. On the offensive side, the Gamecocks will likely rely on Rahsul Faison, Oscar Adaway, and short-to-intermediate throws to sustain drives, but injuries, including the possible absence of LaNorris Sellers, limit their explosiveness and consistency. Red-zone efficiency, third-down conversions, and the ability to avoid quick turnovers will be key for South Carolina to stay competitive. Missouri’s home-field advantage, combined with a deep and experienced roster, sets the stage for them to control both the line of scrimmage and the pace of the game, while the Gamecocks will need opportunistic plays and creative adjustments to remain in contention in what could be a physical, hard-fought SEC matchup.

Best Bet: Ahmad Hardy o90.5 Rushing Yards

Hardy has been the centerpiece of Missouri’s ground game, regularly eclipsing 100 yards in each of the team’s first three contests, and matchups like this one suggest he will continue that trend. The South Carolina front seven, while talented, lacks the depth to consistently hold up against a downhill, physical back who can exploit both inside gaps and off-tackle lanes. Missouri’s offensive line is experienced, with starters capable of opening holes on early downs, allowing Hardy to maintain a steady rhythm and accumulate yardage even when the Gamecocks focus on stopping the pass. The Tigers are expected to lean on the run throughout the game to control tempo, keep Pribula upright, and shorten possessions, which will naturally result in a heavy workload for Hardy. Even if South Carolina forces third-and-long situations, Hardy’s vision, quickness, and ability to break tackles should allow him to maximize every carry. Additionally, Pribula’s passing attack prevents defenders from stacking the box, creating multiple lanes for Hardy to exploit. Combining Missouri’s offensive line strength, Hardy’s early-season consistency, and matchup dynamics, he will easily clear 90 yards, and he is also more than capable of running for over 120 as well.

Prediction

Missouri’s advantages along the line, in the backfield, and across skill positions give them the tools to dictate this contest from start to finish. Hardy is likely to shoulder a majority of the load, establishing the run and keeping South Carolina’s defenders off balance, while Pribula efficiently distributes to his receiving corps to complement the ground attack. South Carolina may generate isolated big plays, leveraging short passes and quarterback mobility to stay in field position, but the absence of Sellers limits sustained drives and consistent scoring threats. Defensively, Missouri can rotate personnel to maintain fresh pressure on the quarterback while maintaining gap integrity against runs, forcing the Gamecocks into third-and-long situations and predictable play-calling. Time of possession should tilt heavily toward the Tigers as they wear down South Carolina’s front seven with a heavy rushing attack and keep Sellers off the field. While the Gamecocks could stay competitive through opportunistic plays and special teams contributions, Missouri’s ability to control tempo, dominate in the trenches, and execute efficiently across all three phases should allow them to gradually pull away. Missouri’s solid depth and strong execution will help them secure a solid victory while South Carolina struggles to sustain momentum or match the overall production of the host team.

Final Score: #23 Missouri 30, South Carolina 23

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Arizona State @ Baylor (-2.5) (O/U: 59.5)

McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

7:30 pm, FOX

Baylor hosts Arizona State in what shapes up as a fast-paced, high-octane non-conference clash that could quickly become a showcase for offensive efficiency and explosive playmaking. The Bears enter this contest with balance on both sides of the ball, relying on Sawyer Robertson to distribute accurately to Josh Cameron and tight end Michael Trigg while Bryson Washington powers the rushing attack with both efficiency and physicality. Arizona State, coming off a stumble against Mississippi State, must respond and prove that last season’s CFP experience hasn’t worn off; Sam Leavitt will lead the Sun Devils’ offense, distributing to Raleek Brown out of the backfield and connecting with Jordyn Tyson and Chamon Metayer downfield. Both defenses have shown flashes of strength but have struggled to sustain stops over extended drives, particularly against teams with multidimensional quarterbacks and consistent rushing threats. Baylor’s front line has the edge in controlling the trenches, which could allow Washington to grind out early yardage and open up opportunities for Robertson to hit receivers in rhythm. Arizona State will need to balance aggression with patience, mixing misdirection plays and quick throws to counter Baylor’s disciplined defensive rotations. Expect a contest where field position, explosive gains, and third-down conversions dictate scoring swings, and both teams are capable of hitting the scoreboard in bursts throughout the night.

Best Bet: Over 59.5

It’s a big number, but given the offensive firepower that’s capable of being unleashed on both sides, adding in Baylor’s defensive struggles from the first few weeks, they could possibly soar over this total. Baylor has consistently produced over 500 yards per game, mixing Robertson’s precision passing with Washington’s ability to gain tough yards between the tackles. Arizona State’s offense, though exposed against Mississippi State, features enough talent and versatility to exploit mismatches in the secondary and create yardage both through the air and on the ground with Raleek Brown. Both defenses have vulnerabilities in coverage, and rapid scoring opportunities could arise from quick strikes or turnovers that leave one side suddenly on the back foot. Baylor’s home-field advantage allows them to operate at a pace that favors high-yardage drives, while Arizona State’s CFP-experienced personnel are capable of responding with explosive plays if they find gaps in protection or coverage. The combination of tempo, passing efficiency, and running back effectiveness makes the total points line realistic, with each team likely contributing multiple quick touchdowns. Even if Baylor sustains possession for portions of the game, Arizona State can answer with chunk plays, positioning the over as a high-value angle for this matchup between two offenses capable of generating scoring bursts and capitalizing on defensive lapses.

Prediction

Baylor’s offense thrives on a rhythm that forces opponents to react rather than dictate, and that dynamic is likely to define this matchup against Arizona State. The Bears can wear down a defense with a mix of physical inside running and quick-strike passing, creating openings and maintaining possession that keeps the Sun Devils’ athletes on their heels. Bryson Washington’s ability to gain tough yards up the middle sets the tone, while Sawyer Robertson’s timing and accuracy allow the passing game to exploit any defensive hesitation. Arizona State, even with the dual-threat capability of Sam Leavitt and the short-yardage effectiveness of Raleek Brown, will struggle to sustain momentum against a Baylor line capable of controlling the trenches for most of the game. Key moments in the second half, including third-down stops and red-zone execution, will likely determine the winner in a contest where explosive plays are inevitable. While the Sun Devils can create temporary surges with well-timed runs and deep throws, Baylor’s balance, home-field energy, and discipline under pressure should allow them to maintain the edge. The game will showcase both teams’ scoring abilities, but the Bears’ ability to impose structure on the pace and capitalize on critical situations should be the difference in a high-scoring, competitive matchup.

Final Score: Baylor 37, Arizona State 34

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Florida @ #4 Miami (-9.5) (O/U: 51.5)

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

7:30 pm, ABC

Miami’s primetime matchup pits them against a Florida team that has seen plenty of struggles and inconsistencies plaguing their team this season. The Gators’ 1-2 start, including a loss to an unranked opponent, has exposed the offense as one of the least reliable in recent SEC history. Quarterback DJ Lagway has repeatedly turned the ball over at critical moments, forcing the offense to rely on a limited set of contributors. Running back Jadan Baugh has carried much of the offensive load, showing toughness and the ability to generate positive plays even when the passing game stalls. In the air, only Vernell Brown III and Hayden Hansen seem able to consistently produce, though both are far from dominant. The rest of Florida’s receivers have struggled to create separation, catch contested passes, or convert critical downs, leaving the team reliant on short gains, creative play-calling, and red-zone improvisation. Miami, meanwhile, has built a roster that balances explosiveness and physicality, particularly with Carson Beck directing the offense efficiently and taking advantage of Malachi Toney, CJ Daniels, and Keelan Marion as the primary playmakers. The Hurricanes’ backfield, anchored by Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown, has consistently controlled the line of scrimmage, opened up the passing game, and imposed their tempo. With Florida’s offensive line struggling against Miami’s disciplined front, the Gators will face constant pressure, and sustaining drives will be extremely difficult. This sets the stage for a contest in which Miami’s balance and execution are likely to dominate, leaving Florida needing big individual efforts just to stay competitive.

Best Bet: Malachi Toney o66.5 Receiving Yards

Malachi Toney has quickly emerged as Miami’s central offensive weapon, a true freshman already demonstrating the polish and playmaking ability of a seasoned veteran. His impact extends beyond raw athleticism, as his precise route-running, smooth acceleration out of breaks, and knack for creating separation make him a nightmare for defensive backs who are still adjusting to his pace. Against a Florida secondary that has struggled with both depth and consistency through the early weeks of the season, Toney enters the matchup with a clear opportunity to exploit mismatches all over the field. Whether stretching the defense vertically on deep shots or turning routine short throws into chain-moving gains, his versatility ensures that Beck will consistently look in his direction when Miami needs a big play. Expect him to be heavily involved in early drives, as well as in pivotal third-down situations and red-zone scenarios where his timing and reliability give the Hurricanes an edge. While Daniels and Marion also draw defensive attention, their presence only helps Toney, often leaving him in favorable one-on-one matchups. Complemented by the inside running of Fletcher. and Brown forcing Florida to respect the ground game, Toney should thrive in open space. Altogether, his skill set, usage rate, and Miami’s offensive balance put him in a great spot to thrive here.

Prediction

Miami has a clear edge in this matchup, and with them being better on both sides of the ball and being at home, I’d be stunned if they lose. Beck will control the rhythm, relying on athletic wideouts to stretch Florida’s coverage while Fletcher and Brown dominate on the ground, controlling time of possession and forcing the Gators into predictable passing situations. Florida will depend on Jadan Baugh to keep drives alive and on the limited contributions from the team’s pass-catchers to generate meaningful yardage, but the lack of reliable depth and precision in the passing game makes sustained scoring extremely difficult. Miami’s offensive line will likely neutralize pressure from Florida’s front, creating consistent lanes for the running backs and time for Beck to find Toney in advantageous matchups. Key moments in the red zone and critical third-down situations are expected to swing in favor of the Hurricanes, and while Florida may produce occasional bursts of offense, Miami’s balance, execution, and ability to maximize high-leverage opportunities should ultimately secure a decisive home victory. The Gators’ struggles in the air, combined with Miami’s physicality and precision, set the stage for the Hurricanes to control both tempo and scoring throughout the contest, leaving little opportunity for Florida to recover.

Final Score: #4 Miami 31, Florida 20

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#9 Illinois @ #19 Indiana (-6.5) (O/U: 52.5)

Indiana University Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

7:30 pm, NBC/Peacock

The B1G opener in Bloomington is a proving ground for two programs charting different paths, as Illinois enters 2025 with ambitions of replicating what Indiana accomplished in 2024 by breaking through from overlooked contender to legitimate national threat. Last season’s ten-win campaign gave the Illini a foundation, but their ability to climb into that same tier hinges on games like this, where execution and poise against a ranked opponent on the road carry weight. Luke Altmyer’s command of the offense is steady, but questions remain about whether he can elevate his playmakers in high-leverage moments. Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon provide sparks, though their production often ebbs and flows. That inconsistency has forced Illinois to lean heavily on Kaden Feagin’s physical running style to sustain drives and convert in short-yardage situations. Indiana, meanwhile, looks every bit like a program intent on building upon its own breakout, with Fernando Mendoza bringing maturity and composure to an offense flush with talent. Elijah Sarratt stretches defenses vertically, while Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black create balance on the ground. Illinois may have the resumé of a program on the rise, but Indiana arrives with sharper rhythm and a fresher sense of confidence, making this clash both a measuring stick and a potential turning point for the Illini’s aspirations.

Best Bet: Kaden Feagin Anytime TD

Kaden Feagin embodies the physical identity Illinois relies upon in red-zone and short-yardage scenarios, and this matchup presents him with another opportunity to impose his will. At his size, Feagin is the kind of back who thrives when space shrinks, bulldozing his way through defensive fronts that struggle with interior resistance. Illinois has consistently turned to him inside the 10-yard line, not only because of his power but also because of his knack for timing runs with blocks that maximize push. Indiana’s defense, while disciplined, isn’t immune to breakdowns in crowded formations, particularly when forced to sell out against both the pass and the run. With Altmyer tasked to keep defenses honest by testing the secondary, the Hoosiers will be forced to account for Illinois’ aerial threats, leaving Feagin with favorable angles when his number is called. Beyond his red-zone value, he often features in short third-down carries, giving him multiple opportunities to punch one in over the course of the game. Illinois doesn’t rely on explosive scoring plays as much as it leans on grinding, possession-based drives, which means if they’re in scoring range, Feagin’s likelihood of handling the final touch rises significantly. That workload makes his anytime touchdown prop a strong, high-percentage play.

Prediction

This clash will set the tone for both programs in their quest as dark-horse B1G contenders, and while Illinois has the ambition to mirror Indiana’s 2024 rise, the Hoosiers hold the current edge in overall execution. Altmyer and Feagin will keep Illinois competitive, but sustained efficiency over four quarters remains an issue against disciplined defenses. Indiana, on the other hand, has shown the ability to sustain rhythm and dictate pace. Mendoza’s poise under pressure allows him to extend drives, while Sarratt provides a vertical option that can stress Illinois’ secondary throughout the night. The Hoosier run game, powered by Hemby and Black, adds another dimension that gradually wears down opponents, and Illinois’ defense, while solid but occasionally stretched thin, will be forced to spend long stretches on the field. Depth becomes a factor late, and Indiana’s ability to rotate playmakers while keeping tempo sharp should tilt momentum their way in the second half. Illinois’ defense may manufacture turnovers or force field goals to hang around, but Indiana’s composure in the red zone will ultimately prove decisive. The Illini want to be this year’s version of last year’s Hoosiers, but the original is still too polished, too balanced, and too opportunistic at home. Indiana earns a massive win and seizes the moment to stay unbeaten.

Final Score: #19 Indiana 28, #9 Illinois 24

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Make sure to stay tuned this weekend as we learn about more of college football’s top teams and as everyone begins to settle into conference play all across the FBS!